Loading all necessary Packages/Libraries¶
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# Loading the iconic trio 🔥
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# Importing model_selection to get access to some dope functions like GridSearchCV()
from sklearn import model_selection
# from sklearn.externals import joblib
# Loading models
from sklearn import linear_model
from sklearn import svm
from sklearn import tree
from sklearn import ensemble
# custom
import helper
# Loading black for formatting codes
%load_ext blackcellmagic
Styling Tables¶
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%%HTML
<style type='text/css'>
table.dataframe th, table.dataframe td{
border: 3px solid purple !important;
color: solid black !important;
}
</style>
Loading the Dataset¶
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# Loading dataset
filename = "Clean_Akosombo_data.csv"
akosombo = helper.load_csv_data(filename)
Splitting the Dataset¶
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# Splitting dataset
target_variable = "generation"
X, y, X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = helper.split_data(akosombo, target_variable)
Scaling the Dataset¶
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# Data Scaling
X_train, X_test = helper.scale(X_train, X_test)
Chosing Baseline Models and Training Models¶
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# Instantiating baseline models
models = [
("Linear Regression", linear_model.LinearRegression()),
("Lasso", linear_model.Lasso()),
("Ridge", linear_model.Ridge()),
("SVR", svm.LinearSVR()),
("Decision Tree", tree.DecisionTreeRegressor()),
("Random Forest", ensemble.RandomForestRegressor()),
]
model_names = []
accuracies = []
# Fitting models to Training Dataset and Scoring them on Test set
for dataset_name, dataset in [("Akosomba_Data", akosombo)]:
for model_name, model in models:
regressor_model = model
regressor_model.fit(X_train, y_train)
accuracy = regressor_model.score(X_test, y_test)
print(dataset_name, model_name, accuracy)
model_names.append(model_name)
accuracies.append(accuracy)
Visualizing Models' Accuracy with Bar Charts¶
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# Size in inches (width, height) & resolution(DPI)
plt.figure(figsize=(25, 15), dpi=200)
x_loc = np.arange(len(models)) # the x locations for the groups
width = 0.5 # bar width
# plotting the graphs with bar chart
models_graph = plt.bar(
x_loc, accuracies, width, color="maroon", edgecolor="orange", linewidth=5,
)
plt.title("Models Accuracy", fontsize=22)
plt.xticks(x_loc, model_names, fontsize=20)
plt.ylabel("Accuracy", fontsize=20)
plt.grid(b=True, which="both", axis="both", color="black", linewidth=0.8)
# adding model accuracy on top of every bar
def addLabel(models):
for model in models:
height = model.get_height()
plt.text(
model.get_x() + model.get_width() / 2.0,
1.05 * height,
"%f" % height,
ha="center",
va="bottom",
)
addLabel(models_graph)
plt.savefig('Bar_Charts_of_Models_and_their_Accuracy.png', dpi=300, transparent=True)
plt.show()
Evaluating Models¶
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# Model Evaluation
for model_name, model in models:
helper.evaluate(X_test, y_test, model_name, model)
Cross Validating Models¶
Cross Validating with a single metric¶
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# Splitting data into 10 folds
cv_kfold = model_selection.KFold(n_splits=10, shuffle=True, random_state=23)
scorer = "r2"
model_names = []
cv_mean_scores = []
cv_std_scores = []
for model_name, model in models:
regressor_model = model
model_scores = model_selection.cross_val_score(
regressor_model, X, y, cv=cv_kfold, scoring=scorer, n_jobs=-1, verbose=1,
)
print(
f"{model_name} Accuracy: %0.2f (+/- %0.2f)"
% (model_scores.mean(), model_scores.std() * 2)
)
model_names.append(model_name)
cv_mean_scores.append(model_scores.mean())
cv_std_scores.append(model_scores.std())
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cv_results = pd.DataFrame({"model_name": model_names, "mean_score": cv_mean_scores, "std_score": cv_std_scores})
cv_results.sort_values("mean_score", ascending=False, inplace=True,)
cv_results.to_csv("cross_validation_results.csv", index=True)
cv_results
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Visualizing Cross Validated Models with Bar Charts¶
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plt.figure(figsize=(25, 15), dpi=200)
x_loc = np.arange(len(models))
width = 0.5
models_graph = plt.bar(
x_loc, cv_mean_scores, width, yerr=cv_std_scores, color="navy", edgecolor="orange", linewidth=5
)
plt.title("Models Cross_Validated Scores", fontsize=22)
plt.xticks(x_loc, model_names, fontsize=20)
plt.ylabel("Accuracy", fontsize=20)
plt.grid(b=True, which="both", axis="both", color="black", linewidth=0.8)
addLabel(models_graph)
plt.savefig('Bar_Charts_of_Cross_Validated_Models_and_their_Accuracy.png', dpi=300, transparent=True)
plt.show()
Training the Model with the Highest Score with Default Hyperparameters¶
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# Instantiating model object
high_score_model = ensemble.RandomForestRegressor()
# Fitting the model on Train set
high_score_model.fit(X_train, y_train)
# Scoring the model on Test set
high_score_model_accuracy = high_score_model.score(X_test, y_test)
print(
f"Model without tuned hyperparameters has an accuracy of {high_score_model_accuracy}"
)
Predicting with the Trained Model and Saving Predicted Results as csv¶
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y_pred = high_score_model.predict(X_test)
data = pd.DataFrame({"actual_generation": list(y_test), "predicted_generation": list(y_pred),})
data.to_csv("model_predicted_values.csv", index=True)
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data.head(10)
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Optimizing the Hyperparameter of the Best Model with GridSearchCV¶
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# Kfold with with n_splits = 5 to split the Dataset into 5-folds
kfold = model_selection.KFold(n_splits=5, shuffle=True, random_state=23)
# Dictionary of parameters to tune
parameters = {
"n_estimators" : [120, 500, 800, 1200],
"max_depth" : [15, 25, 30, None],
"min_samples_split" : [5, 10, 15, 100],
"min_samples_leaf" : [1, 2, 5, 10],
"max_features" : ["log2", "sqrt", None],
}
scorer = "r2"
# Instantiating Search object
grid = model_selection.RandomizedSearchCV(
estimator=high_score_model,
param_distributions=parameters,
scoring=scorer,
cv=kfold,
n_jobs=-1,
verbose=1,
)
# Fit the grid object on Training Dataset
grid.fit(X_train, y_train)
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In [17]:
results = pd.DataFrame(grid.cv_results_)[["params", "mean_test_score", "std_test_score", "rank_test_score"]]
results.sort_values("rank_test_score", inplace=True)
results.to_csv("hyperparameter_tuning_results.csv", index=True)
results
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Evaluating the Best Estimator from the GridSearch¶
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best_estimator = grid.best_estimator_
helper.evaluate(X_test, y_test, "Model", best_estimator)
Predicting with the Best Estimator and Saving Predicted Results as csv¶
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tune_y_pred = best_estimator.predict(X_test)
hyp_tune_data = pd.DataFrame(
{"generation": list(y_test), "predicted_generation": list(tune_y_pred),}
)
hyp_tune_data.to_csv("tune_model_predicted_values.csv", index=True)
hyp_tune_data.head(10)
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Saving the Best Estimator with joblib¶
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import joblib
joblib.dump(best_estimator, "Random_Forest_Regressor.joblib")
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Feature Importance¶
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features = ['norminal_head', 'discharge']
importances = best_estimator.feature_importances_
feature_importance = pd.DataFrame({
'feature': features,
'importance': importances,
})
feature_importance.sort_values("importance", inplace=True, ascending=False)
feature_importance.to_csv("feature_importance.csv", index=True)
feature_importance
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import seaborn as sns
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 5), dpi=200)
sns.barplot(x=features, y=importances, color="navy", edgecolor="orange", linewidth=5)
plt.title("Feature Importance", size=15, pad=20)
plt.xlabel("Feature", fontsize=10, labelpad=20)
plt.ylabel("Importance", fontsize=10, labelpad=20)
plt.grid(b=True, which="both", axis="both", color="black", linewidth=0.5)
plt.savefig('feature_importance.png', dpi=300, transparent=True)
plt.show()
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